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If you do, follow yourself. Follow your instinct, your gut feelings. That is what I have learned over the years. If you actually know Fantasy Football, do not waste your time going to other sites and looking for more information on who to start. Maybe as a benchmark, but not to overpower your own decision.

This past weekend, I changed a few of my guys because of a consensus on who I should start. I ended up being right. You get more pissed if you don’t start a guy that you wanted to start, than if you don’t start a guy that someone else said you should start.

Maybe there is a site you can always trust.
Whatever you do, go against yourself.

However, if you know nothing about fantasy football, do not just look at ESPN’s rankings, find a consensus.

Never, let anyone change your mind either…

I’ll be here

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I don’t quite understand Dr. Z’s theories. Look at his power rankings, and that should explain it.
Dropping the Chargers and Colts to 15-16, while putting the Ravens above each of them? It has only been week one, those rankings are almost a joke, I don’t get how he is the head predictor at SI, it vexes me.

ESPN’s rankings look a little better, or a little better, I agree with most of those picks.

Okay, so week Two. There are some great games this week, really good for so early in the season. I am going to predict these great games, something that I am scared of doing.

CAR > CHI – Carolina is Chicago, but with a more potent offense.
JAX > BUF – Buffalo is good, but Jacksonville is better at home.
NE > NYJ – I hate the Patriots, but you can’t forget about the rest of their team.
SD > DEN – The Broncos offense has the ability to pull off an upset, especially at home, but the Chargers will turn up the heat.
DAL > PHI – The Cowboys offense has more power on offense, but McNabb can be the x-factor.

Titans, Saints, and 49ers all with the win. Not entirely sure how the Seahawks are seven point favorites, but maybe they will show us why today.
It will be a close game in Minnesota if Indy does not start playing like they know how.
Lions? No…I chose the Packers.

In Fantasy, I like the Mannings, Kerry Collins to pull out a win, and Phil Rivers to put some nice stats on the board.
Willie Parker will shine as Big Ben has a sore shoulder, Portis, Gore, and Larry Johnson should all have running room.
Plax will get free points, Moss is a big target, Santana Moss will find some seams, and Brandon Marshall is back.

But seriously, there were too many key injuries in week One.

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Drafting: First Two Rounds
Mock:

1. Tomlinson

24. A Johnson

2. Peterson

23. MJD

3. Westbrook

22. Maroney

4. Brady

21. B Edwards

5. Jackson

20. R Wayne

6. Addai

19. Brees

7. Manning

18. L Johnson

8. Gore

17. R Grant

9. Portis

16. Owens

10. Moss

15. McGahee

11. Ja Lewis

14. Barber

12. Lynch

13. Romo

Round 1
The first two rounds can make or break your team. If you do not pick up on the best of the best, your guys in the 3rd/4th rounds will carry your team. In all drafts, the first three picks should be obvious. After that, everything is up for grabs.
LT, AP and BW are in a league of their own.
If Brady puts up like numbers to what he had last year, he will still be the #1 QB and challenging for #1 total in fantasy points.
Jackson and Addai are the next RBs, Jackson having huge upside as seen in 2006, and Addai holding steady numbers every year has been in the league.
Manning should be the next pick as the rest of the RBs are not very consistent whereas Manning has never had a bad year.
Portis has been solid for awhile, and Gore has the possibility of Bush-like receptions in Martz’s offense.
Moss is unstoppable with Brady.
J Lewis and M Lynch can be taken next. They are both steady RBs for improving teams and their numbers will only continue to get better.
Round 2
I would take Romo compared to any other back at this point. But Barber would still be a possibility. With almost two rounds before your next turn, you can pull another RB and probably still get maybe a Hasselbeck/Roethlisberger in the 3rd round.
Since Romo is gone, Barber is next, and now you get Lewis and Barber, two quality RBs with a late pick.
You could go with a WR duo of Owens and Moss, but that leaves you with no RBs, which is why McGahee would be the pick. He is the only constant RB left, compared to injury proned.
Already with Portis, you go for TD machine TO, other backs are too risky at this point, and TO is money.
Gore has the risk of being on a bad team, so you go with next on the list, R Grant. He may be a risk as well with Favre gone, but you can’t be unlucky in the first two rounds, right?
L Johnson is a tricky pick, but with Manning, you can risk it. Herm will show an improved defense, and LJ should put up decent numbers, not 20 TD, but enough to be safe with a top QB.
With Addai, who is almost for sure, you get a top QB in Brees. He has proven his worth every year in NO.
Jackson is another possible flop for an early pick, but he can hold the team, so you get Wayne who is automatic. RB possible though.
With Brady already, you may be looking for an RB, but I do not like Maroney/Brady on the same team, so get the next best WR in Edwards.
Adding to Westbrook, you get the next best option in Maroney. One stellar RB and another possible stellar.
Peterson is injury prone, so get MJD who can put up big numbers on days that Peterson doesn’t.
LT is golden, and with two straight picks, you can get an explosive receiver in A Johnson and Carson as your QB next year. Three top candidates, not bad.

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The good thing about drafting Quarterbacks is that you can find a starting one in almost every round up until the end. The only problem with this is that half of them are either rookies, competing for the starting spot, injury prone, on a bad team, or just not very good yet their team continues to put faith in them. I will split them up into QBs you can start, and QBs you probably should not have carrying your team.

When and who to pick relies on; who is left on the board and what type of team you are looking for.

Starters
+Right off the bat; Brady, Manning, Romo and Brees are all 1st and 2nd round QBs. If there is not a worthy starting RB/WR available, you need to take one of these guys to compete.
+Palmer and Anderson may fall into this category, but best bet would be in the 3rd round. Palmer has the risk of anything involving Chad Johnson and Anderson only has one quality year under his belt.
+Roesthlisberger, Hasselbeck and McNabb will all be drafted somewhere between the 4th and 7th rounds. You can take Big Ben in the 4th if you believe he can follow up last year’s success. However, the other two you can let slide. There will be QBs you can find in later rounds that will put up like stats +- 20 points.
+These include Delhomme, Bulger, Rivers, Garrard, Schaub, Cutler and Manning. They will be last of the line for starting QBs on your team. Most of these guys are either an injury risk, or yet to prove too much. Garrard, Cutler and Manning are all sleepers in this group. Garrard and Cutler each have received new WRs to throw to which should increase their production. Manning does throw a lot of interceptions, but has had steady production the last three years, and maybe with a Super Bowl he has more confidence.
+If you did get any of those QBs, you are either playing in a 20-team league or have a RB/WR heavy team.

Backups
+Now the backups come into play. Usually you just want to get a good guy that can step in for a bye week. If you have a risky QB already on your team, you need to get another guy that can step in and put up numbers in case things go wrong for your starter.
+Kitna, Young, Campbell and Rodgers can all fill that slot. Young and Kitna throw more INTs than TDs and neither Rodgers nor Campbell has completed a full season. Each has potential for a quality season though, unlike the rest of the bunch.
+The rest of the QBs are either fighting for position or in a run-heavy offense. Try and look for upside, but they still may be difficult. Whoever can pull away with the Cardinals job can put up decent points. Alex Smith has a possibility with not much competition behind him and an addition of a few veteran WRs. The rest of the QBs are up for grabs, take your pick.


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A little delayed on the posting, 2 hours before gametime.
Looks like a rough week for pure upsets though. However, that usually leads to every game turning out to be an upset.
No Colts or Lions this week, so I’ll need some teams to replace them.

RAMS>Ravens, ravens -9.5? I really don’t think that is necessary, the Ravens Offense has been nothing lately. Last week the Rams offense picked up again, it will be an interesting game in BAL.
TITANS>Bucs,  both defenses are stellar, but I think the key is Vince Young, if he can do what he does, that gives them all that advantage. And right now the Bucs have NO rushing offense as seen last week against the colts.

From here, the upsets are not plenty.
I think the Raiders can get the -10 line against the Chargers.
If the Seahawks don’t win by -6.5, they are not on their way to anything special this year.
I don’t see many blowouts this week…
Two biggest games:
17 Packers – 14 Redskins, this will be a defensive battle, the Redskins have a good chance, but I don’t see the packers losing 2 straight in Lambeau
31 Patriots – 27 Cowboys, I hate do to it, but the Cowboys defense is too unpredictable. If they can hold Tom Brady’s offense to under 24 points I will be surprised. Either way, the Cowboys don’t want this one to get out of hand.

Look out for McNabb and his offense after coming off a bye. Same with the Bengals, both of these teams have something to prove. Cleveland and Miami will be a good high scoring game. The Cleveland defense will be key in defending Ronnie. Jax and Tex another good game, but low scoring. The Texans need to show they can actually beat someone good, but Jacksonvilles defense may be too much without Andre to help the Texans out. Chicago will keep it rolling against the offensive troubles vikings. Kurt Warner will lead the Cardinals over the Panthers, who have been suspect all year.

And the Monday nighter analysis will come…

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I’ve been busy lately, so not much with fantasy football.

But last week was not a good week. To note, most of the picks I put on this site are mostly upsets.

So I was about 2-4 last week.
Bears we’re disappointing, Bengals should have won, Rams are not good at all, the Saints are done with, and the Giants pulled through for me.

7-6 overall for 2weeks, ehhh. I throw some more risky picks in for the week.

I don’t know who did the lines this week, BUT the Packers and Steelers are going to destroy those lines.

This is a rough week for upsets though, but will probably end out to be the week of most of upsets.
I don’t  see any that stand out to tell you the truth.
COLTS>Broncos, however, the Broncos will get the line, remember the Colts don’t like blowing out teams, and Cutler does have an arm, and they can run the ball.
RAIDERS>Fins, ehhh Culpepper, I could go with the Fins since it is home, but I like LJ this year, yes, Lamont Jordan.
BUCS>Panthers, very good possibility, Panthers have never been as good as people thought, and Delhomme might be out, that also leads to David Carr playing awesome.
Bears,Lions game is very intriguing, but I will say the Bears, because whenever I pick the Lions in games like these, yea, they lose.

Hmmm…Eagles, Giants. EAGLES, the giants defense is too weak for what the eagles can bring. BUT, it will be close, in NY.

And Finally, I am just going to pick the Bengals over the Patriots, because it will stun everyone when it happens.
The Bengals will compete, their defense is not 51points against Cleveland bad.

And watch they get smoked…eh.

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Review Week 2

Well wasn’t that an interesting week. Upsets left and right.

Let’s see. I was about 5-2 with my picks. Lions, Texans, 49ers, Bucs, Colts.

The Bills were not as good as I thought (or the Steelers are just that good), nor were the Broncos.
And I completely got the Chargers pick wrong, I should have known the Pats would have done that after the week they had…

Fantasy wise…

Good Picks : Garcia and Anderson exploded, Brees got nothing, Edge tore it up, Branch and Jerricho were decent plays, LJJJJ is doing the same as his offense, bad.
The Bad: Bulger passed my expectations as did Holt, Grossman still can’t do anything,  Jax has not found their running game, and Willis put up respectable numbers.

Not bad at all…

Let’s rank the 2-0 teams.

Patriots
Colts
Steelers
Cowboys
Packers, wooooah
Texans, wooooah
49ers
Broncos
Lions
Redskins

There is a pretty surprising list, that is not my top teams just top 2-0 teams also…Here are some 1-1 teams that can compete.
Chargers, Bears, Bengals, Titans, Ravens

Those are the only teams I like right now at 1-1.

Right now, there’s only 4 teams that show they can get to the Superbowl, I listed them in top 2-0’s.

Colts vs Patriots in AFC Champ game
Cowboys vs Seahawks in NFC, not that I like the hawks, but…I don’t like anyone else

How about those Saints? They have one more week to turn it around. Monday night home game…get back to the basics. If not, they are in for a long year.

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