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Archive for October, 2008

Reviewing 8

It was a hectic week, did not get my thoughts posted.
Predictions were good, betting was good, real football…was NOT good, unfortunately.

A good game Monday Night, turned into the Colts losing themselves. They’ll be back.
I got 10 right in ESPN (my real picks) and 12 right on Facebook. Not bad, went 10-2 betting, fantastic.
It was my week of upsets just about (minus the Colts). Giants, Browns, Saints, Dolphins, and the Cowboys if you consider that an upset.

Fantasy lovers, one of the last tough weeks to go. 49ers Panthers, Saints, and Chargers all on bye, Yikes!
The likes of Gore, Brees, Steve Smith, and LT – Rivers combo. To my demise, I have the first three on one of my teams…
Luckily there is a Matt Ryan for all those people playing against the Raiders.
Sleepers: Daunte Culpepper against the Bears, wait, no, just kidding.

Anthony Gonzo will show up for the NE game. Could Torain be the key for Denver? Is Yancy Thigpen really going to throw for 300 against the Bucs? – NO! Marc Bulger will have his best game yet. In a Dome battle, Schaub continues his ways and Gus Frerotte starts to lose it. The Lynch continues his TD streak of…one.
Defensivive battle Monday night, who do you want starting? Wait, no one. Besides the automatics (Porpous).

Pick ‘Em for week 9 is next. 14 for 14? I think so. A Power Rankings should be on its way as well.

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Se7en

ESPN
CBS
Yahoo
And AJ Mass, who has his column on the front page of ESPN’s Pick ‘Em: (Straight = 46-42 / Spread = 44-44)
An expert on CBS is 41-46 and another is 43-44.
Mortensen is leading all experts at 59-29.
Me: Straight = 56-32  / Spread = 52-36

I’m not sure how those CBS guys got their jobs, or if they even watch football for that matter. But a losing record? That guy is a good 10 worse picks worse than anyone that at least watches the NFL. Ah well…

The hardest games to predict this week seem to be:
BAL @ MIA / NO @ CAR / IND @ GB
I would like the Ravens, but they are having questions about Flacco right now, and the Dolphins aren’t THAT bad. Even though the Panthers are at home, they showed huge weaknesses against the Bucs last week, and the Drew Brees should be able to do anything he wants against the defense. The Saints defense hasn’t been TOO bad lately, either. The Packers are better than their record, but not better than a Colts team which is clicking, or at least they were last week…

There is still no line for the Chargers/Bills game. The Chargers are hot, and the Bills are coming off a bye with Trent Edwards back. I don’t care, I like the Chargers.
Look for the Raiders and Chiefs to pull out potential upsets. I am picking the Raiders though, believe it.
Big divisional game between the Vikes and Bears, look for Lovie to get his team a win at home.
Browns @ Skins is a tough choice, it will be a close game with the Redskins winning in the 4th quarter.
Denver @ New England, hmm, Cassel breaks out and wins it for the Patriots even though Cutler does not have a bad game.

Live Well

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Picking Six

Very interesting picks from the ESPN office this week.
The Experts like the Bears, Texans, Cowboys, and the Chargers.
The Sunday Countdown crew? They like the Falcons, Dolphins, Cardinals, and Patriots.
A lot of indecisiveness here, I’ll sort them out.

Bears, Texans, Cardinals, Chargers

So, I was going to pick the Bengals, but Palmer is out so I have to go with the Jets
Panthers are playing as a unit, the Bucs have Garcia back which may be a downgrade
I thought the Denver/Jacksonville game would be a lot more difficult to predict, but everyone seems to like the Broncos all the way. Sorry, so am I.
There were four games that I left blank after a first glance:
MIA@HOU / CAR @ TB / DAL @ ARI / NE @ SD
One of these games was not the Ravens @ Colts.

A big surprise that everyone is picking the Ravens. I thought about it, then chose wisely with the Colts. All bias aside. It will be Addai’s best rushing game to date, and they will pressure Manning, but he will get out of it. The Colts rush defense will pick it up and not allow a 100-yd rusher. They forced Rosenfels to make mistakes, they will force Flacco to do the same.
Colts win.

I was 11-3 against the spread last week. That’s money in the pocket right there.

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Reflexiones

Congrats to anyone who watched the entire Colts-Texans game. The last five minutes were very intense, and sad for Sage.
“The result was the largest comeback in the final five minutes to win in regulation in NFL history”
Who would’ve thought? Other than that, we saw a lot of great games and more questions brought about.

Are the Dolphins for real? If someone would’ve said last year that the 1-15 Dolphins would beat the two AFC Championship teams (NE, SD) in back-to-back games, I am pretty sure NO ONE would have believe them. -Wow
There are only two truly horrible teams in the league right now (DET, STL) The Texans and Bengals are better than their advertised records, respectively, the Jaguars, Colts, Giants, and Cowboys know this.
There is a reason why Buffalo needs Trent Edwards at QB, and that is J.P. Losman.
The Giants have been the most convincing team so far this year, even with an OT win against the Bengals.
The Titans have been convincing, but not as much. Their true test comes against the suspect Colts in two weeks, if they win this, the division is theirs. With the rest of their schedule, it may already be theirs, they have a good chance of winning 13 games.
The Redskins are showing everyone how to play football. Besides the first half/first drive of their game against the Giants, and part of the Saints game, the Skins have been dominant against good teams.
The Eagles and Packers are scared, the Falcons are surprising everyone but that may end in their next two games (CHI, PHI).
Even with Tom Brady, the Patriots still would not have been as good as last year (what happened to their defense)?

Tonight-
Both of these teams need a win. If the Vikings lose they may already be too far behind. As for the Saints, they are in last place at 2-2, but a loss does not put the division out of reach, as they have the ability to win any game with their offense.
Drew Brees can pass to anyone, and if the Vikings rely too heavily on the pass, the Deuce is back and he can go to work. AP should find holes and Frerotte could find seems, but it won’t be enough.
Saints 34 – Vikings 24

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J K Fivin

So, there’s been some mediocre weeks recently. My upsets have not been upsetting, and the Vikings have played the wrong way for two straight weeks. The Cardinals defense forgot to show up last week and I underestimated the Titans…just a little bit. I am surprised that the Bucs offense has been this good, and also the Bears beating the Eagles was a big win for them.

I congratulate the Experts for not picking all the same teams this week. Very nice variety.
I’m not sure what records mean, but all of the Yahoo experts are worse than ESPN’s. Interesting.
I’m at 39-21 with 7-6 last week.

Intriguing matchups.

Miami has a chance if they can do work early on, but they won’t -> Chargers
The Redskins have a great chance, but the Eagles won’t lose two straight.
In a game of defense, the Ravens and Flacco (turnover-less) take it.
The Broncos defense is not good, but they will win at home.
Could it be the Bills first loss?…Yes, the Cardinals defense shows up at home, and Warner doesn’t have 20 turnovers.
Patriots losing after a bye week? —No
With the Steelers injuries, it’s hard to go against the Jaguars, I want to like I did in the playoffs last year, but I won’t.
The Saints win at home, just because the Deuce is loose and Brees does not need a stud WR.

Lions, heh, this may be the last week I pick them to win. At home, against the Bears who are running a high- I like Lovie, BUT, the Lions are pumped after getting rid of Millen.
As for the Colts, it is a must win, well-no, they don’t have must wins yet, BUT look at their next six games (@HOU, BAL, @GB, @TEN, NE, @PIT) Not very pleasant at all. They need this game, if they don’t get it, I may start to get a little scared.
31-20 Colts, I’m sorry Steve Slaton, this is not your game, I hope.

Two 4-0 teams in the AFC going down? That’s my goal, and it may happen with two away games.

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